New Ibec economic forecasts

Happy New Year and best wishes for 2019.

Today Ibec published its new Quarterly Economic Outlook which forecasts GDP growth of 4.1% this year, along with strong employment and consumer spending numbers. However, our economic performance will be weaker than recent years. Ireland is at a mature phase of the business cycle, the economy is close to capacity and serious risks to competitiveness are emerging.

Many firms will face a more difficult period over the coming months, due to a weak sterling and Brexit uncertainty. This is already impacting business, as companies postpone investment decisions until there is more clarity on what the future EU-UK relationship will look like. For more information, read the full report and listen to our new podcast.

This Friday 11 January, myself and colleagues from our economics team will provide a special members’ briefing on our 2019 forecasts, and what current economic trends mean for business. The event will run from 1pm – 2pm, with lunch from 12.30 pm. To register, click here. I hope you are available to attend.

Ibec’s economic forecast are predicated on an EU-UK Brexit withdrawal deal being agreed. A ‘no deal’ outcome would present dramatic new challenges. This week I wrote to Taoiseach Leo Varadkar to put firmly on the record the concerns of business. Business needs much more information on how a ‘no deal’ would be managed on the ground. An extended transition, even in the case of ‘no deal’, and comprehensive supports to help companies through any adjustment period would be required. For more information on Brexit ‘no deal’ planning with regard to trade and customs click here.

If you have any queries, please get in touch.

Best wishes,

Danny McCoy, Ibec CEO